Dutch MIVD warns Europe faces rising pressure from Russia and China as hybrid threats expand
Europe’s security is coming under growing strain as major powers compete for political, military, economic and technological influence, according to the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD).
In its newly published 2025 annual report, the agency says Russia and China are challenging Western influence in ways that directly affect Europe and NATO.
The report was sent to both chambers of the Dutch parliament, outlining a threat picture in which open conflict is only one part of a wider, more persistent confrontation.
MIVD director Vice Admiral Peter Reesink said Europe must take a larger role in its own security as established international rules face increasing pressure.
China’s role in Russia’s war
MIVD assesses that China maintains an officially neutral position on the war in Ukraine while Chinese companies provide support that strengthens Russia’s war effort. The agency describes that assistance as a factor in the broader threat environment facing Europe and the Atlantic alliance.
The report frames the relationship as part of Russia’s ambition to secure a place as a leading power in a shifting world order.
It argues that Beijing’s practical support, even if not always state-branded, can still have meaningful security consequences for European states.
Hybrid attacks below the war threshold
Russia remains the largest and most immediate threat to peace and stability in Europe, MIVD says, citing not only the war in Ukraine but also a pattern of activity aimed at sowing fear, unrest and division.
The agency highlights cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage and espionage as tools designed to influence decision-making while staying below the threshold of overt military conflict.
MIVD also reports sustained Chinese cyber espionage targeting Western defense industries to gain insight into military capabilities and to accelerate China’s own technological development. It expects a further rise in 2026 in Chinese campaigns exploiting vulnerabilities, including in routers, firewalls and VPN systems.
Beyond Europe, MIVD notes that conflicts and instability in other regions shaped the threat landscape in 2025 and into 2026, with spillover effects for the Netherlands and its interests.
It points to disrupted shipping routes linked to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and to wider regional tensions across Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.
The report also says a war involving Iran that began in 2026 has had significant economic consequences, including for the Netherlands. It adds that the Caribbean parts of the Kingdom of the Netherlands have felt knock-on effects from tensions between the United States and Venezuela.
